To assess the potential future impacts and District needs for the QEA site, a thorough study of the enrolment and demographic trends near QEA was analyzed. The study area included elementary schools at QEA, JQ, Bayview, Carnarvon, Lord Kitchener, Norma Rose Point, Queen Elizabeth, Queen Mary, Southlands and University Hill elementary. 

With the exception of Norma Rose Point*, enrolment in these areas has been declining for many years mirroring the decline in birth rate and youth population. 

*Further explanation about this enrolment trend is explained here. 

Enrolment History

The QEA study area is comprised of the two elementary schools at UBC/UEL and six elementary schools on the west side of Vancouver Over the last decade, the overall number of students enrolled within the study area increased by 95 students or three per cent; however, the increase was almost entirely due to enrolment growth at Norma Rose Point Elementary which opened in 2014.  Enrolment at the schools in the study area located in Vancouver declined by 20 per cent and enrolment at University Hill Elementary declined by 19 per cent.  During the same period, the number of children in that area aged 1 to 4 years declined by 32 per cent and the number of children in the 5 to 12 age group decreased by 17 per cent. 

It is important to acknowledge that between 2020-2021 enrolment numbers were lower than expected as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and its restrictions to enter the country. As a result, when restrictions were completely lifted in 2022, the District saw a higher than expected number of new or returning Canadian families registering for VSB. That said, even with the influx of new students in 2022, enrolment in schools near QEA is still below the 2019 levels, prior to the pandemic. The current 2022 enrolment levels still align with pre-pandemic trends for this group of schools, which is on the decline.

The chart below illustrates the trend of declining enrolment in relation to overall youth population decline in the study area. 

Enrolment forecast

As illustrated by the graph above, at present there is no indication that there will be sustained or substantial enrolment growth in the vicinity of the QEA site. In fact, the area has experienced overall enrolment decline since 2016. There is surplus capacity at many surrounding schools, a total of 583 spaces currently available. Forecasts indicate there could be more than 900 surplus spaces 10 years from now.  

If enrolment growth does materialize, the annex building on the QEA site does not have the minimal capacity to accommodate the increase with a small operating capacity of only 98 spaces. That means, the District would likely not use the annex building to accommodate students, as it would be limited by its capacity. If there was an unexpected increase in school-age children in the area, there is sufficient overall school capacity in the existing nearby elementary schools to accommodate any potential future enrolment growth.

Additionally, the current QEA building is not seismically safe, meaning it does not advance the District’s long range planning objectives of accommodating students in modern, safe, healthy schools located in their catchment. As such, the District would not consider building, nor would the government consider funding, a new school on the QEA site as there are several other options to accommodate enrolment growth more effectively and cost efficiently available at UBC and on the west side of Vancouver.